Industry Trend Analysis - Stalled Power Mega-Projects To Deter Broader Investment - DEC 2017


BMI View: We forecast tepid growth in total power capacity and generation in Romania and maintain our view that investment in all areas of the power generation segment will be limited until there is greater certainty over the future of the Cernavoda nuclear facility and a handful of other mega-projects that are stuck in the project pipeline.

There is little to indicate that several large-scale power projects in Romania will be completed within our 10-year forecast period and, as such, we see little scope for anything more than tepid growth in power capacity and generation in the country over the next decade. We forecast broad stagnation - with annual average growth in power generation set to come in at 0.3% between 2017 and 2026 and the electricity generation mix likely to remain broadly unchanged. Thermal generation (gas and coal) will continue to account for the largest share of electricity generation, followed by hydropower, and output from the existing Cernavoda nuclear reactors will account for 20% of electricity generation ( see chart below).

False Starts Necessitate Caution

Flat Forecasts For Growth In Romanian Power
Electricity Generation By Type
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: EIA, BMI, IRENA

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