Industry Trend Analysis - Proposed Duties Downside Risk To Bullish Solar Forecast - FEB 2018

BMI View: India's proposed duties on Chinese and Malaysian solar imports ha ve the potential to threaten growth in the Indian solar sector and increase the cost of developing projects. This presents a downside risk to our bullish growth projections for solar capacity in the country - but over the longer-term will boost domestic solar manufacturing.

There is a growing likelihood that the Indian government will impose duties on Chinese and Malaysian solar power imports coming into India, in order to protect its domestic manufacturing sector. Anti-dumping duties, safeguard duties and import duties have all be cited and could be levied on solar modules and cells that are sourced from China and Malaysia - in response to a petition filed with the government by five domestic Indian manufacturers in late 2017.

Chinese solar equipment has played a significant role in the expansion of India's solar sector thus far, and the Indian solar sector grew by nearly 60% over 2017, with capacity standing at just under 17GW by end-2017. India was the largest importer of solar cells and modules from China over the first three quarters of 2017 (January-September), representing a third of all China's solar shipments during that time period. In terms of India's reliance on imported solar modules, nearly 90% of its solar equipment is sourced from outside the country, 85% of which comes from China.

India Solar Surge To Face Growing Headwinds
India - Solar Capacity (MW)
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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