Industry Trend Analysis - Past Tenders Will Boost Thermal Power Growth - MAR 2018

BMI View: We expect Argentina's thermal power sector to register a significant expansion in 2018-2020, as projects contracted in government tenders over the past two years are brought online. Over the longer term, growth in installed thermal power capacity will proceed at a slower pace, as investment will focus on other sectors, particularly renewables.

Argentina's thermal power sector saw significant growth over the past two years and we expect it to continue to expand at a robust pace through 2020. This growth will be driven by the implementation of cogeneration projects and the closing of the cycle at a number of existing plants, as for tenders held by the government in 2016 and 2017.

A report released by Argentina's National Nuclear Energy Commission (CNEA) in January 2017 shows that installed thermal power capacity (which in BMI's definition refers only to power plants using coal, natural gas and oil as fuel) increased by 1,281 megawatts (MW) in 2016 and by 2,142MW in 2017. Taking into account that the US Energy Information Administration - which we use as our source of standardised data across our global power sector coverage - reports that Argentina's thermal power capacity in 2015 was 25,541MW, we estimate that capacity in the sector reached 28,914MW at the end of 2017.

Positive Growth Outlook For Fossil-Fuelled Power Capacity
Argentina - Thermal Power Capacity And Share Of The Total Capacity Mix
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: EIA, BMI

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