Industry Trend Analysis - Increasingly Intermittent Power Supply To Bolster CSP Ambitions - MAR 2018
BMI View: Morocco's success in delivering renewables growth in order to reduce reliance on imported hydrocarbons for power generation will increase the volatility of the country's electricity supply over the coming decade. This will cement the country's push to develop CSP solar capacity, given the technology's ability to store power and the recent cost deflation registered in the segment in Chile, the UAE and Australia.
We maintain our view that Morocco will remain one of the outperformers in the Middle East and Northern African (MENA) renewables space over the coming decade. This will be the result of the country adding a substantial amount of wind power, as well as concentrated and photovoltaic solar power (CSP and PV) capacity over our 10-year forecast period leading up to 2027. Our upbeat view is informed by Morocco's strong track-record in delivering tendered renewables projects in a timely manner at steadily decreasing costs - leading us to forecast both the solar and wind sectors to almost treble in size between end-2017 and end-2027. This will mean that the wind and solar sectors will expand by 1.9GW and 1.2GW respectively over this timeframe.
One of the key drivers of renewables growth in Morocco is the government's robust support for power sector diversification. The country's lack of hydrocarbon reserves has meant that the power mix has been vulnerable to external supply shocks - and wind and solar power has therefore become viable alternative sources of electricity that can be sourced domestically. As a result, Morocco was an early adopter of renewables technology. Already in 2002 the country relied on wind power for 1.5% of power generation, and with solar added to the mix this share grew to more than 11% in 2017 ( BMI estimate).
|Upbeat Outlook For Wind And Solar Growth|
|Morocco Renewables Capacity By Type (MW)|
|e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Sources: BMI, EIA, IRENA|